Convention bounces average 5 points

by: Matt

Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 20:00:32 PM EDT

In 1984, Mondale was ahead of Reagan for a short time just after his convention. There's a reason they call it a bounce:

Polling since 1964 suggests that both Mitt Romney and President Obama can expect a small but significant increase in support following their respective party conventions. But sustaining those bumps is no sure thing.

Since 1964, the median "bump" or "bounce" earned by presidential candidates in Gallup polling after their conventions has been 5 percentage points. In some cases, the convention bump has receded quickly as presidential debates and other outside factors dominate the storyline. But in other years, a convention bump has set the tone for the final few months of the campaign.